Possible scenario
Policy Support Arrives
20% Chance
Officials may decide the banking selloff is tightening financial conditions enough to justify a softer policy tone or targeted liquidity support. This would not solve banks' earnings pressure, but it could produce a sharp relief rally in financials and lower short-term stress indicators.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +2.3%
- Technology +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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