Scenario description
Assume the late-September 2026 Treasury selloff does not develop into a market-functioning episode during the observation window. In the United States, the 10-year Treasury yield’s reported move above 5.3% and the 30-year yield’s reported rise to roughly 5.6% are followed by an operationally quiet period in which Treasury keeps its regular coupon auction calendar and announced buyback operations broadly within already published parameters. No new emergency or materially enlarged long-end buyback program, abrupt reduction in long-duration coupon issuance, or special market-functioning facility is put into effect by the US Treasury before the resolution date. This branch treats any Fed speeches, auction commentary, or future-rate pricing changes as insufficient unless they are accompanied by the absence of the specified Treasury debt-management changes through the window.