Possible scenario
Contained Bank Selloff
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the losing streak remains a sector repricing rather than a systemic run. Large banks retain deposits, investors keep punishing regional lenders with commercial real estate exposure, and volatility stays elevated but orderly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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