Possible scenario
Saudi Dismissal Gains
25% Chance
Saudi Arabia could persuade the court that plaintiffs have not met JASTA’s causation and agency standards, especially if the judge views the alleged links as too attenuated. This would shift the fight to appeals and sharply reduce the odds of a near-term trial.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.