Possible scenario
China Shields Iran
25% Chance
China moves beyond rhetoric by giving Iran stronger economic, diplomatic, or logistical cover while still avoiding direct military involvement. This would raise sanctions and shipping-risk concerns, but the first market reaction would likely remain below crisis scale unless Chinese support becomes overtly military.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
- Non-Energy Materials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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