Possible scenario
Pause Repricing Extends
45% Chance
The 3.0% core PCE reading gives investors a credible reason to trim expectations for additional 2026 Fed hikes after a hawkish September. Markets treat the undershoot as evidence that restrictive policy is working, even though inflation remains above the 2% target.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Bitcoin Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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