Possible scenario
Backlash De-escalates Case
40% Chance
The most likely path is that public criticism, age and evidentiary proportionality push the Metropolitan Police and Crown Prosecution Service toward a restrained outcome. Ministers defend the Palestine Action ban in principle but avoid turning the arrested lawyer into a national civil-liberties symbol.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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