Possible scenario
Rapid Strait Stabilization
38% Chance
The Saudi-led coalition uses the foothold at Dhubab to push Houthi units away from the Bab el Mandeb shoreline and restore limited confidence in the southern Red Sea route. This is plausible because the operation appears pre-planned under the recent defense pact and follows the seizure of Dhubab near the strait.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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