Possible scenario
Attritional Coastal Stalemate
30% Chance
The operation prevents the Houthis from consolidating full control but fails to eliminate missile, drone, and coastal artillery threats around the strait. This is a realistic middle path because the Houthis have experience with asymmetric warfare and can disperse launchers across Yemen's western coast.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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