Possible scenario
Orderly Security Handover
55% Chance
The most likely path is a managed transfer of the Baghdad airport headquarters to Iraqi control, consistent with the 2024 withdrawal agreement and the completed 2026 pullout. Washington retains diplomatic, intelligence, and limited security coordination through the U.S. Embassy and regional partners rather than a uniformed Iraq mission.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- VVX-0.4%
- -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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