Possible scenario
Domestic Political Friction
20% Chance
Iraqi factions use the end of the U.S. military presence to compete over the definition of full sovereignty. Pressure focuses on embassy security, contractors, and intelligence links rather than a renewed U.S. troop deployment.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.