Possible scenario
Runoff Or Delay
12% Chance
The vote does not deliver a decisive immediate mandate, either because no candidate clears the threshold or because the count remains too tight to call. This extends political uncertainty into the next stage, keeping Brazilian risk assets sensitive to coalition signals.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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