Possible scenario
PT-Backed Upset
22% Chance
Despite prediction-market momentum for Flávio, the Lula-aligned camp wins through late turnout, tactical voting, or polling error. The immediate market response depends on whether the winner stresses fiscal discipline or returns to interventionist themes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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