Possible scenario
Clean Flávio Victory
58% Chance
Flávio Bolsonaro converts his 65% pre-vote probability into a presidential win that is accepted by the electoral court and major parties. Markets focus on the probability of a right-leaning economic team, privatization talk, and a less interventionist stance toward state-linked companies.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Utilities +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.