Possible scenario
Johnson Flips Seat
45% Chance
Jake Johnson’s lead proves real enough to overcome the district’s Trump+12 baseline, helped by a favorable Democratic national environment and voter fatigue with incumbent Brad Finstad. The result becomes an early marker of a larger suburban-rural Democratic overperformance in the 2026 midterms.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Healthcare -0.2%
- Utilities +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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