Possible scenario
GOP Rebound Widens
15% Chance
The Johnson lead proves temporary as Republican partisans consolidate and Finstad rebuilds his usual rural margins. This outcome would suggest the poll overstated Democratic strength in a district that still voted comfortably for Trump.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Finance +0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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