Possible scenario
Finstad Narrowly Holds
30% Chance
Finstad recovers enough Republican-leaning voters in the final weeks to survive despite the bad polling signal. The race remains far closer than the district’s partisan lean, still pointing to a difficult national map for Republicans.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Healthcare -0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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