Possible scenario
SEC Hardens Terms
18% Chance
The SEC accepts the premise of a federal path but responds to political and investor-protection concerns with stricter conditions. This reduces legal uncertainty but raises compliance costs for DeFi operators and centralized crypto venues.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
- PURR-1.7%
- +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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