Possible scenario
Jurisdictional Split Persists
25% Chance
The SEC's lead role remains contested because the proposed rules do not fully cover spot trading. CFTC allies, state regulators, and parts of the crypto industry argue the federal path is too incomplete to become the main market framework.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Technology -0.2%
Tickers
- PURR-2.8%
- -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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