Possible scenario
Managed maritime standoff
42% Chance
The most likely path is a contained but tense maritime confrontation. Iran and IRGC-linked forces continue signaling control over the Strait of Hormuz without forcing a full closure, while the U.S. Navy and regional partners increase patrols and escorts.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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