Possible scenario
Diplomatic de-escalation
18% Chance
Regional mediators press Tehran and Washington to reduce the risk of an accidental war. Iran may accept a quieter posture if it has demonstrated leverage over shipping and can claim deterrence without absorbing U.S. retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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