Possible scenario
Coalition naval response
27% Chance
Washington moves beyond statements and adds visible military capacity around Hormuz. The response is designed to deter Iran without directly attacking Iranian territory, but the risk of miscalculation rises.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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