Possible scenario
Relations Deteriorate Further
20% Chance
Netanyahu's accusation becomes part of a broader clash over France's Palestinian-state recognition campaign and Macron's handling of Islamist extremism. Diplomatic relations worsen, but economic spillovers remain modest because bilateral trade and defense exposure are limited.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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