Possible scenario
Measured Reform Package
42% Chance
Pope Leo XIV and the French Bishops' Conference turn the pledge into a formal reform package, but within existing Church structures. The most likely path is a mix of safeguarding audits, clearer reporting rules, and renewed cooperation with survivor compensation bodies rather than a revolutionary overhaul.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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