Possible scenario
Legal Scrutiny Escalates
17% Chance
The pope's pledge leads to fresh demands from prosecutors, parliamentarians, and survivor lawyers for deeper disclosure. This scenario is less likely than incremental reform but credible given France's post-2021 focus on institutional accountability and past high-profile admissions by senior clerics.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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