Possible scenario
Saudi Containment Holds
42% Chance
Saudi Arabia maintains its refusal to let Israel join or base operations from Saudi territory, prioritizing its Yemen de-escalation track and its restored ties with Iran. The Red Sea remains tense, but Riyadh keeps the conflict compartmentalized and avoids becoming a co-belligerent.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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