Possible scenario
Limited Western Escalation
23% Chance
Saudi Arabia keeps Israel out, but the United States, the United Kingdom and selected European partners increase pressure on Houthi launch sites and surveillance networks. The conflict remains geographically contained, though markets price higher shipping and insurance risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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