Possible scenario
Ceasefire Track Advances
20% Chance
Saudi rejection of an Israeli role strengthens Riyadh's credibility with the Houthis and Iran, allowing a diplomatic track to regain momentum. The main outcome is not a full Yemen settlement, but a narrower arrangement to reduce Red Sea attacks and protect Saudi territory.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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