Possible scenario
Direct US Retaliation
30% Chance
The U.S. treats the missile fire as a direct attack on American forces and conducts a larger strike campaign against IRGC Navy assets. Iran answers unevenly, creating several days of elevated military risk around the Gulf.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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