Possible scenario
Russian proxy attribution
45% Chance
The most likely path is that investigators find evidence of Russian-linked facilitation or direction, while London preserves legal caution until charges and intelligence reviews are complete. The response stays below a military threshold, focused on attribution, arrests, expulsions, sanctions, and base-security upgrades.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
- Consumer Services -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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