Possible scenario
Non-state plot emerges
25% Chance
Investigators may conclude that a foreign actor helped finance or inspire the plot without proving state command-and-control. This would reduce immediate Russia-NATO escalation risk, though UK counterterrorism proceedings would continue.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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