Possible scenario
Crypto Repricing
30% Chance
Investors focus less on card payments and more on public-key exposure in cryptocurrencies, custody systems, and older wallets. Bitcoin and crypto equities sell off as exchanges raise confirmation requirements and custodians review signing infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.6%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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