Possible scenario
Localized Health Spread
30% Chance
The outbreak grows within hospitals or among close contacts but remains geographically limited. Additional advisories and cancellations hurt Kenya-exposed travel and hospitality assets, though global market effects stay modest.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.1%
- Finance -0.2%
- Healthcare +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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