Possible scenario
Proxy War Escalates
30% Chance
Iran does not attack the U.S. directly, but allied militias intensify strikes across Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Yemen and the Gulf. Washington responds with deployments, air-defense reinforcements and limited retaliatory actions while trying to keep shipping routes open.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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