Possible scenario
Direct Military Clash
18% Chance
A miscalculation or successful attack pulls the United States, Iran and Israel into direct military action. The conflict remains short of full regional war in the base case, but oil infrastructure and Gulf shipping become central market risks.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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