Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
42% Chance
Washington and Tehran avoid a direct clash despite the family evacuations, with both sides using back channels through Oman and Qatar. Iran-backed groups continue limited attacks, but the U.S. response stays defensive and calibrated.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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