Possible scenario
Investigations Expand
40% Chance
Congressional Democrats, inspectors general, and watchdog groups broaden inquiries into whether the White House and OMB directed agencies to use appropriated funds for personal political promotion. This is the most likely path because the timeline already shows multiple stories tying DHS money and officer memorial funds to pro-Trump advertising.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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