Possible scenario
Houthi Counteroffensive
20% Chance
Houthi forces absorb the initial army offensive and regain the initiative south of Taiz. This would threaten the government's supply line to Aden and raise the chance of Saudi- or UAE-backed reinforcements entering the fight.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Industrials -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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