Possible scenario
Army Gains Ground
38% Chance
The Yemeni army and allied anti-Houthi units convert the reported casualty claims into tactical gains around Taiz. The most likely version is a partial reopening of the Taiz-Aden supply route rather than a decisive collapse of Houthi positions.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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