Possible scenario
Yield Pressure Persists
38% Chance
Treasury investors continue to focus on fiscal supply, term premium and uncertainty around the Fed path rather than the disinflationary signal from weaker oil. Stocks remain vulnerable because the usual cushion from falling crude prices does not translate into lower discount rates.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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