Possible scenario
Decoupling Fades Temporarily
27% Chance
Markets partially restore the traditional relationship between softer energy prices and lower Treasury yields. The Goldman warning is treated as a risk to monitor rather than evidence of an immediate equity shock.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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