Possible scenario
Refinery Campaign Widens
30% Chance
Ukraine continues prioritizing Russian refining assets after repeated successes around Samara and Moscow. A wider campaign would force Moscow to extend fuel controls and reduce product exports further, with a clearer read-through to European diesel balances.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.