Possible scenario
Rapid Operational Stabilization
15% Chance
Rosneft restores part of the Kuibyshev refinery more quickly than expected or offsets the lost runs through other plants. Markets treat the halt as another disruptive but not systemically important refinery incident.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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