Possible scenario
Localized Refinery Outage
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Rosneft treats the Kuibyshev halt as a serious but containable outage, using inventories and rerouting crude to other Volga-area plants. Russia keeps diesel export restrictions in place, but avoids an immediate nationwide escalation in rationing.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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