Possible scenario
Unilateral U.S. Doctrine
28% Chance
The White House converts the rhetoric into a more explicit U.S.-first AI policy, reducing support for OpenAI's call for U.S.-led global standards. This creates uncertainty for firms that need harmonized rules across the U.S., EU, UK, and Asia.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.2%
- Business Services -0.4%
- Telecommunications -0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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