Possible scenario
Fed Repricing Dominates
20% Chance
The next market move is driven less by AI enthusiasm and more by rates, inflation expectations, and Fed pricing after the middling jobs report. Investors reassess whether the Nasdaq's record is sustainable if yields back up.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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