Possible scenario
Replacement Path Opens
20% Chance
The White House and Senate Banking Committee move to restore a more conventional SEC lineup after Peirce's resignation. A credible replacement path reduces the need for controversial one-member governance, though timing depends on Senate bandwidth.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
- COIN+0.6%
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.