Possible scenario
Talarico Upset
28% Chance
James Talarico converts his fundraising edge and saturation advertising into a rare Democratic Senate win in Texas. This would be treated as a political upset, especially given Trump’s intervention for Paxton and the scale of Republican outside spending.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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