Possible scenario
Contested Finish
18% Chance
The race ends inside a narrow margin, with both campaigns preparing recount and litigation teams. Given Paxton’s legal background, Trump’s endorsement and national Senate stakes, a close result would likely prolong uncertainty for days or weeks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Energy -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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