Possible scenario
US-Israel Campaign
20% Chance
The United States moves from blockade support to direct military participation after concluding that Iranian retaliation or nuclear breakout risk has crossed Washington's threshold. This would be a major escalation but still short of a full regional war if Gulf export routes remain open.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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